The reality of bugging out.

[ElevenBlade]

Interesting. Do you have a reference for this please ? I haven't seen this stat before.

This probably only applies in the US, where we did not accept the tests that had already been produced from the WHO in February,  - rather individual laboratories scrambled to invent their own as fast as they could over the last few months.

https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html

[eamo]

This probably only applies in the US, where we did not accept the tests that had already been produced from the WHO in February,  - rather individual laboratories scrambled to invent their own as fast as they could over the last few months.

https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html

[comis]

Thanks to everyone staying at home.
In a pandemic situation like this, you know you did it right when it seems like a overreaction in hindsight.
If it seems like you didn't do enough in hindsight....
I fear that we're about to go through this all over again with more deaths due to the early reopenings.

Good point.  I think as time progress, this comparison will become less relevant since South Korea to a certain extent, has it 'under control' for the last two weeks with low teen new cases, and US is still high on active cases. 

The lesson learnt here is the importance of science-driven decision making, the early availability of test has enable them to successfully do quarantine and contact tracing, which helped stop the spread.  As case numbers go up, the number of testing/contact tracking/quarantine will exponentially goes up.  And I guess that maybe why some experts would say US needs 5 million tests daily, which is a really high number.  In retrospect, the month of Jan/Feb was indeed a window of golden opportunity, and it's probably why mainstream media has been trying to hold government/personnel accountable for that loss. 

Nonetheless, no point of playing blame game but stay focus on saving lives, I really only hope the testing level can catch up, because as the spread continues, harder it is to catch up with the increasing numbers.  If Fauci was right about the virus continues into Fall, new flu cases would make this situation even more complicated to wrestle.

This probably only applies in the US, where we did not accept the tests that had already been produced from the WHO in February,  - rather individual laboratories scrambled to invent their own as fast as they could over the last few months.

https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html

This is a long story.  I have friends whom were invited to join WHO meeting early in Feb, and that was the first time I heard about the of ineffective CDC tests and lack of testing in US.  It was worrisome to say the least.  As I always say, it's time to stop all the blame game, misinformation or betting on 'feeling', and it does need international collective effort to get this under control.

I agree with you on staying home--it's half of the story.  It is equally important to effectively quarantine everyone who's sick in proper facilities(so they get treated early on and lower death rate), contact trace and test those around them to make sure no one else got sick.  That's why testing is so important.  We are not only testing those with obvious symptoms, but whomever in close contact during incubation period or asymptomatic group, so we could slow down the spread and 'flatten the curve'.

[ElevenBlade]

Good point.  I think as time progress, this comparison will become less relevant since South Korea to a certain extent, has it 'under control' for the last two weeks with low teen new cases, and US is still high on active cases. 

The lesson learnt here is the importance of science-driven decision making, the early availability of test has enable them to successfully do quarantine and contact tracing, which helped stop the spread.  As case numbers go up, the number of testing/contact tracking/quarantine will exponentially goes up.  And I guess that maybe why some experts would say US needs 5 million tests daily, which is a really high number.  In retrospect, the month of Jan/Feb was indeed a window of golden opportunity, and it's probably why mainstream media has been trying to hold government/personnel accountable for that loss. 

Nonetheless, no point of playing blame game but stay focus on saving lives, I really only hope the testing level can catch up, because as the spread continues, harder it is to catch up with the increasing numbers.  If Fauci was right about the virus continues into Fall, new flu cases would make this situation even more complicated to wrestle.

This is a long story.  I have friends whom were invited to join WHO meeting early in Feb, and that was the first time I heard about the of ineffective CDC tests and lack of testing in US.  It was worrisome to say the least.  As I always say, it's time to stop all the blame game, misinformation or betting on 'feeling', and it does need international collective effort to get this under control.

I agree with you on staying home--it's half of the story.  It is equally important to effectively quarantine everyone who's sick in proper facilities(so they get treated early on and lower death rate), contact trace and test those around them to make sure no one else got sick.  That's why testing is so important.  We are not only testing those with obvious symptoms, but whomever in close contact during incubation period or asymptomatic group, so we could slow down the spread and 'flatten the curve'.

I hate to hijack this thread, but I want my friends here to be safe.
so just a few small follow up points to this

- I agree we should not play the blame game.  But it pains me that in February we didn't take and use the available tests from the WHO, and forced well-intentioned scientists and labs all over the US to MacGyver the tests on their own.  Testing was crucial at that time and we missed that window of opportunity.  It would be helpful before we re-integrate in areas of the US that haven't peaked yet.

- everyone should note that scientists have been using the phrase "flatten the curve"  this means to make it a shorter, wider curve so that anyone who is within that cure is within capacity for the proper facilities that Comis alludes to.  The area under the curve (total number affected) remains the same, but they will do better within a capable system.  It's a matter of resources.

- you will be hearing more about the antibody test in the next several weeks.  Currently, this test could come back positive for the old Coronavirus and therefore shouldn't be taken as proof of infection.  Nor should it be assumed that it indicates one is immune. 

Ok... I'll stop now.  Id be ok with carrying on the conversation on a separate thread in the Break Room - there's a hand sanitizer EDC thread where this would be more appropriate. 

[Grant Lamontagne]

I have been keeping up with this thread since it started, but I haven't had a chance to respond properly- and I'm not 100% sure I'm going to get through this one either, but here goes!

1- The COVID issue is a difficult one as there is so much misinformation, and so much conflicting information from a variety of actual expert sources.  What people don't realize is that despite the millions of cases, no two are the same.  People will have different reactions and symptoms, but the environment also plays a huge role in infection, treatment etc.  With all of these factors at play (and a lot more) it takes time to develop an accurate model, and even longer still to develop a treatment.  We are in this for the long run, whether we like it or not.

2- I agree with a lot of the conspiracy types, but maybe not in the obvious way.  Governments have seized a lot of control over citizenry, and they are not as good at relinquishing the control when the crisis is over, and that scares the bejeezus out of me.  I'm not an anti-masker, I'm not an anti-vaxxer and I don't wear a tinfoil hat, but here in 2020 us Canadians are still paying income tax, which was something introduced to help pay for the war effort in WWII.  Surely we have paid that off by now, why are we still paying?  Simple- the government gets something and they don't like to give it up again.  I imagine they will ease some restrictions so we all think they are releasing everything, but some measures of control will stay on the books "for the public good" while they raise taxes to pay for the costs of COVID related issues.  Yeah, yeah, I am a bit of a paranoid anarchist, but I don't see a lot in the historical records that give me any confidence.

3- I agree that bugging out only works when you have a place to bug out to.  It is a common problem that I see on Doomsday Preppers and the like, where the guy says he has a thousand acres with a bunker on it, stockpiles of food, weapons and ammunition.... but it's 750 miles away.  There's no way he is going to manage that- and another who claims that his place is only accessible by plane, which seems great, but planes are not that stealthy, and tend to fly in straight lines.  That basically advertises to people which way they should go....

This says nothing about personal injury- it's very likely that people used to an office environment suddenly having to chop wood, dig latrines etc are going to hurt themselves and require medical attention, which is very difficult when you are the only person for a hundred miles, no one can find you, or worse, fears for their lives because you have booby trapped the property.  Starving or freezing to death because you broke your leg, or dying because of an infection caused by a splinter is kind of an embarrassing end for someone who spent their lives "being prepared."

4- Going south is a good plan, but there's a reason it was so sparsely populated prior to the invention of air conditioning.  On the surface, I would agree with going to a place where the weather is less likely to kill you, but you will notice that more early settlers stayed in more northern US states in the early days, mostly because of heat and humidity issues and rampant infections.  At least in the colder half of the year in the northern US and Canada (and similar latitudes) we get a reprieve (somewhat) from the spread of disease simply because it is too cold for microorganisms to spread. 

5- Getting back to the vehicle thing.... this is something that I have been thinking greatly about for a few years now.  I have been following a lot of van life stuff on the various social platforms, and I would love to take to the road for extended periods in a vehicle that would be largely self sufficient.  The big issues would be consumables (food, water and fuel) and waste such as garbage and  grey and black water.

I've got much of it figured out- at least in theory.  Garbage I could dispose of when I get fuel, and I don't produce a lot of it anyway.  Most gas stations have a garbage can next to the pumps, so that shouldn't be a huge issue, although I don't like the idea of keeping garbage around longer than I have to.

I would eliminate the black tank with a product like the Incinolet, a toilet that incinerates the bodily waste and leaves nothing but a fine ash that can be disposed of with the rest of the garbage. 

The grey water is a bit of a problem since you can't just dump it, but I figure I can minimize it by evaporating most of it, and dump it when it is safe to do so.  I also thought about setting up an infinity shower- the premise is that you take your normal ultra fast Navy Shower using a minimal amount of water that then goes into the grey tank, then switching over to a closed loop that basically runs your water through a filter and back into the on demand heater, and back into the shower.  I like long, hot showers, and this seems like the only way to really do that in a mobile environment.  I found plans online for a pretty simple system that claims to use as few as ten liters to run, and is virtually limitless as you just keep recycling the same water as long as you want- or until the power runs out.

Naturally power would be a big deal, but as I don't plan to stay put very long, I figure I can recharge the battery bank (and yes, bank) often enough, and supplement with solar power.

Fresh water is available most places, and I was working on how to set up a method of hooking up one of those 18L water cooler jugs to make it that much easier.

Fuel is my biggest issue- as I said, I intend to travel a lot with a setup like this, and feeding it won't always be easy, especially in uncertain times.  Ideally I would love to run the whole thing off some Tesla type batteries (or better if I could find them!) and power each wheel with an individual electric motor, allowing full 4WD, rear wheel drive, front wheel drive or any configuration I would want, depending on the circumstances.  That might slow me down some, as I wait for a portable wind turbine, solar panels and maybe a small generator to recharge the batteries enough to go again, but that's a risk I am willing to take. 

Def

[Sea Monster]

2- I agree with a lot of the conspiracy types, but maybe not in the obvious way.  Governments have seized a lot of control over citizenry, and they are not as good at relinquishing the control when the crisis is over, and that scares the bejeezus out of me.  I'm not an anti-masker, I'm not an anti-vaxxer and I don't wear a tinfoil hat, but here in 2020 us Canadians are still paying income tax, which was something introduced to help pay for the war effort in WWII.  Surely we have paid that off by now, why are we still paying?  Simple- the government gets something and they don't like to give it up again.  I imagine they will ease some restrictions so we all think they are releasing everything, but some measures of control will stay on the books "for the public good" while they raise taxes to pay for the costs of COVID related issues.  Yeah, yeah, I am a bit of a paranoid anarchist, but I don't see a lot in the historical records that give me any confidence.

That's not paranoid, that's just more or less what happens.
I see the same things happening in my own country (or more specifically, States, around here they tend to horde power more than the "top" level government, which really doesn't do much at all - whilst our entire population is distracted, all sorts of new developments are being approved, laws being passed, and I'm sure plenty of evil being sown in the halls of the government buildings....)



Anyway, this leans into another interesting considering for "bugging out" presently (noting with some irony, that late last year, and early this year I crossed state borders six times specifically related to emergencies re: fires).

There's presumably some ancient law that prevents the states from saying we can not Leave - however, they recently discovered they can enact ones saying you can not Enter, and when you live on an island, not being able to Enter any state, is more or the less same, in practical terms, as not being able to Leave any state.

So, due to some interesting changes that I guess I never expected in my life time, I can not actually get to any of the land I own, in any direction 

We're in the middle of the great big disaster everyone was planning for, and I can neither bug in, nor bug out 

[ElevenBlade]

I have been keeping up with this thread since it started, but I haven't had a chance to respond properly- and I'm not 100% sure I'm going to get through this one either, but here goes!

1- The COVID issue is a difficult one as there is so much misinformation, and so much conflicting information from a variety of actual expert sources.  What people don't realize is that despite the millions of cases, no two are the same.  People will have different reactions and symptoms, but the environment also plays a huge role in infection, treatment etc.  With all of these factors at play (and a lot more) it takes time to develop an accurate model, and even longer still to develop a treatment.  We are in this for the long run, whether we like it or not.



Def

This point is worth re-telling.  There are so many different presentations of cases, that it will take months....even years... of data gathering and analysis to find the patterns that can not be attributed to random chance. 

We must withhold judgment of things that even seem to be common sense... remember that during the wars in the 1800s it took research - gathering and calculating numbers to discover that soldiers were better off if the field surgeon left the bullet inside them, and did worse if the surgeon extracted the bullet.  It didn't make sense at the time, but gathering data and crunching the numbers revealed a surprise.  From then on, soldiers have survived battles with a higher rate than before.  We should always think of this scenaro when it comes to medical research. 

[Grant Lamontagne]

Agreed.  Star Trek didn't prepare us for things like this.  We have been told for generations now that doctors, once exposed to a completely alien organism, unlike anything they have ever seen, can be eradicate the virus, along with all of it's affects, in about 42 minutes, once you remove the commercial breaks.   

Well, we don't live aboard the Enterprise, it's been more than 42 minutes, and reality is settling in.  It is unfortunate, but it takes time to model these things, which is an important factor in finding a way to fight it.  It's a new mutation of an existing virus, which is fortunate because we can modify an existing model rather than starting from scratch, however it also means that mistakes will be made as we expect X = Y, but it turns out that due to the mutation, X = Z instead.  Certain off the counter, existing medications may have some effect on it, but it isn't the silver bullet that some quacks are making it out to be. 

In fact, there is no silver bullet, at least not yet, which is why we are required to take a multitude of precautions.  Folks saying "if your mask work, why do I need one?" really annoys me, because masks don't work by themselves, but instead are part of a larger framework of treatment and containment.  This question makes about as much sense as saying "if my fire extinguisher works, why do I need insurance and a fire department?  My house is safe."   

Yeah, yeah, I know I am upsetting some members here, and members are the most important part of this forum.  Even so, I welcome the healthy debate on what works and what doesn't, in order to keep as many of us as safe as possible. so we can go back to enjoying the stupid things we all do that jeopardize our safety, but in a fun way.

 

Def

[ElevenBlade]

Agreed.  Star Trek didn't prepare us for things like this.  We have been told for generations now that doctors, once exposed to a completely alien organism, unlike anything they have ever seen, can be eradicate the virus, along with all of it's affects, in about 42 minutes, once you remove the commercial breaks.   

Well, we don't live aboard the Enterprise, it's been more than 42 minutes, and reality is settling in.  It is unfortunate, but it takes time to model these things, which is an important factor in finding a way to fight it.  It's a new mutation of an existing virus, which is fortunate because we can modify an existing model rather than starting from scratch, however it also means that mistakes will be made as we expect X = Y, but it turns out that due to the mutation, X = Z instead.  Certain off the counter, existing medications may have some effect on it, but it isn't the silver bullet that some quacks are making it out to be. 

In fact, there is no silver bullet, at least not yet, which is why we are required to take a multitude of precautions.  Folks saying "if your mask work, why do I need one?" really annoys me, because masks don't work by themselves, but instead are part of a larger framework of treatment and containment.  This question makes about as much sense as saying "if my fire extinguisher works, why do I need insurance and a fire department?  My house is safe."   

Yeah, yeah, I know I am upsetting some members here, and members are the most important part of this forum.  Even so, I welcome the healthy debate on what works and what doesn't, in order to keep as many of us as safe as possible. so we can go back to enjoying the stupid things we all do that jeopardize our safety, but in a fun way.

 

Def

  well said.  The other point to remember is that this is a mutation of the common cold ... Something that we have never had a "cure" for, and something that we've never had durable immunity to.  Patience and precaution ...