Update 2:
It came, maybe?
Last night the tracking updated as shipped via UPS, but with a FedEx number. FedEx reported a label creation in Oregon, but no shipment, ETA Saturday the 19th (2 days late for the initial estimate.)
Came home tonight to find a smallish package from Lowe's addressed to me on the doorstep. I vaguely hoped it might be the Supertool, but figured it was probably a holiday/loyalty doodad from Lowe's. I bought some stuff for a project there a couple weekends ago, and thought they might be sending me a crappy screwdriver set or something to try and entice me to do some Christmas shopping, as companies sometimes do.
I opened it up and found a Leatherman box inside. Box was slightly scuffed up, but not beyond normal mailing or to a degree that'd cause me any concern. Supertool inside is in perfect order. Looks legit w/ proper date codes in the handles, etc. The only weirdness (besides the shipping issues) was a black box sheath in the package. Feels like pleather? Does LM make a pleather sheath right now? I don't see one on the website. The one on Amazon is listed w/ the black nylon sheath, so that's a bit odd. Labeled from Mexico, which I know is correct for at least some of LM's sheaths.
At this point, I can only assume it is the Supertool I ordered from Amazon. That or someone sent me a surprise gift, but I assume I'd have gotten a message about it.
Still not sure exactly what's going on. Did Aylin simply get too many orders to fill and order me one from Lowe's (that could explain the mismatched sheath)? Are they a Lowe's employee making creative use of their discount to try and run a drop shipping business on the side?
Overall, assuming this is the ST I ordered, I would consider buying from them again. At $55 bucks, including shipping (that arrived in under 2 weeks and on time) that's a pretty good deal. I did have to send them a couple messages, so I don't know if someone who was less naggy would've had the same luck. For almost half off, I'm willing to send a couple emails. Amazon is easy enough to get refunds on if there's an issue, in my experience, to roll the dice. Would not buy from them at less than 40% off though.
Will update if/when the other package arrives (or shows as delivered) and/or someone fesses up to buying me a Supertool.