If I were a betting man, I'd put it all on Tyson.
The thing is, how much of that is nostalgia?
Tyson was an animal, but now he's an old animal, likely feeling the effects of the things he did when he was younger, as we all do.
Recent and significant health problems (like having been hospitalized for sciatica issues) may seriously affect him- especially if his back decides to recur around the time of the fight. I don't know if any of you have experienced sciatica pain, but I have, and I'll tell you, I wouldn't be dancing around the ring with that going on!
Paul is young, in his prime, will have pads and whatever steroids he can get a hold of, backup to let him rest of need be, trained at a Mike Tyson training camp, has had ample time to study Tyson and, probably never saw him fight live.
I honestly believe that much of Tyson's success was due to intimidation. You knew he had a hell of a right hand, you saw it in his last fight a few months ago and you were scared of it.
This kind of thing just isn't as impressive when you see it in archival footage.
I'm still thinking Tyson is taking this, but probably not by nearly as much as we think he will.
Def